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006概率中等数值题medium

Overloaded Server in a Two-Stage Routing Scheme

题目

A load balancer routes 4 independent jobs to 3 servers {S1,S2,S3}\{S_1, S_2, S_3\}. Server S1S_1 already holds one pre-assigned job. Each of the 4 new jobs is routed in two stages: first a coin with P(heads)=12P(\text{heads}) = \tfrac{1}{2} is flipped; if heads the job goes to S1S_1, if tails the job is sent to S2S_2 or S3S_3 each with probability 12\tfrac{1}{2} (i.e., P(S2)=P(S3)=14P(S_2) = P(S_3) = \tfrac{1}{4}). A server is called "overloaded" if it holds 4 or more jobs (counting the pre-assigned one for S1S_1). Construct the sample space for the 4 routing outcomes and compute P(at least one server is overloaded)P(\text{at least one server is overloaded}).

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