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012概率中等数值题medium

Network of One-Way Bridges

题目

A flood-prone town is connected by one-way pedestrian bridges arranged in 3 stages. Stage 1 has 2 starting points (S1,S2S_1, S_2), stage 2 has 3 relay islands (I1,I2,I3I_1, I_2, I_3), and stage 3 has 2 destinations (D1,D2D_1, D_2). The bridges are: S1I1S_1 \to I_1, S1I2S_1 \to I_2, S2I2S_2 \to I_2, S2I3S_2 \to I_3; and I1D1I_1 \to D_1, I2D1I_2 \to D_1, I2D2I_2 \to D_2, I3D2I_3 \to D_2. A refugee's route is a path SiIjDkS_i \to I_j \to D_k using only existing bridges. If a route is chosen uniformly at random from all valid routes, find P(the route passes through I2the refugee arrives at D1)P(\text{the route passes through } I_2 \mid \text{the refugee arrives at } D_1).

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