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025概率困难数值题long

Collision Pattern in Two-Round Sampling

题目

In round 1, you draw 3 numbers independently and uniformly at random (with replacement) from {1,2,3,4}\{1, 2, 3, 4\}. In round 2, you draw 2 numbers independently and uniformly at random (with replacement) from {3,4,5,6}\{3, 4, 5, 6\}. The two pools overlap at {3,4}\{3, 4\}. Across all 5 draws, find P(exactly one value appears more than once, and that value appears exactly twice)P(\text{exactly one value appears more than once, and that value appears exactly twice}). Express your answer as a reduced fraction.

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