029概率中等数值题medium
Posterior After One Correct and One Incorrect Forecast
题目
An analyst is senior with prior probability 0.3 and junior otherwise. A senior analyst calls a binary market move correctly with probability 0.8 on each day; a junior does so with probability 0.6. On two independent days you observe exactly one correct call and one incorrect call from the same analyst. What is the posterior probability the analyst is senior?
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