035概率困难数值题long
Positive Then Negative Posterior
题目
A model-risk event has prior probability 1/50. Conditional on the event, the probabilities of a positive screen and then a negative manual review are 9/10 and 1/10. Conditional on no event, those probabilities are 1/5 and 4/5. If the observed sequence is positive then negative, what is the posterior event probability?
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