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Conditional Independence Breaks Under Marginalization

题目

A coin is chosen at random: with probability 1/21/2 it is fair (p=1/2p = 1/2) and with probability 1/21/2 it is biased (p=1p = 1, always heads). Let AA be the event that the first flip is heads and BB the event that the second flip is heads. Show that AA and BB are conditionally independent given the coin type CC, but that AA and BB are not marginally independent. Compute P(BA)P(B \mid A).

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