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083概率中等derivationmedium

The Necktie Paradox

题目

Two players, Alice and Bob, each receive a necktie as a gift. The prices of the two neckties are different positive values. Neither player knows either price. They agree to compare: whoever has the cheaper necktie wins the other's necktie. Alice reasons: 'If my necktie costs xx, then I either gain a necktie worth more than xx or lose a necktie worth xx. Since each is equally likely, my expected gain from the game is positive.' Bob makes the identical argument. Both conclude the game favors them — a contradiction since this is a zero-sum exchange. (a) Identify the precise flaw in Alice's reasoning. (b) Suppose the two necktie prices are drawn by a third party as VV and 2V2V where VUniform(1,100)V \sim \text{Uniform}(1, 100), assigned randomly to Alice and Bob. If Alice sees her necktie has price tag xx, what is her expected gain from the game as a function of xx? Show that the unconditional expected gain is zero.

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b_unconditional_gain