The Necktie Paradox
题目
Two players, Alice and Bob, each receive a necktie as a gift. The prices of the two neckties are different positive values. Neither player knows either price. They agree to compare: whoever has the cheaper necktie wins the other's necktie. Alice reasons: 'If my necktie costs , then I either gain a necktie worth more than or lose a necktie worth . Since each is equally likely, my expected gain from the game is positive.' Bob makes the identical argument. Both conclude the game favors them — a contradiction since this is a zero-sum exchange. (a) Identify the precise flaw in Alice's reasoning. (b) Suppose the two necktie prices are drawn by a third party as and where , assigned randomly to Alice and Bob. If Alice sees her necktie has price tag , what is her expected gain from the game as a function of ? Show that the unconditional expected gain is zero.
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b_unconditional_gain