← 返回数学题库
098概率中等数值题medium

The Will Rogers Paradox (Stage Migration)

题目

Group A consists of the values {1,2,3,9}\{1, 2, 3, 9\} and Group B consists of {5,6,7,8}\{5, 6, 7, 8\}.

(a) Compute the mean of each group.

(b) Now move the element 55 from Group B to Group A. Recompute the mean of each group. Verify that both means have increased.

(c) The overall mean across all 8 values is unchanged. Prove the following general statement: if an element is moved from group B to group A, and the element's value xx satisfies Aˉ<x<Bˉ\bar{A} < x < \bar{B} (where Aˉ,Bˉ\bar{A}, \bar{B} are the pre-move group means), then both post-move group means strictly exceed their pre-move values.

(d) A medical study reports that a new diagnostic technology has improved average survival time in both Stage I and Stage II cancer patients, yet overall survival is unchanged. Explain how this is possible without any actual improvement in treatment.

解题计时

0:00

提交作答时记录,用于后续平均用时统计。

你的答案

a.mean_A

a.mean_B

b.mean_A_prime

b.mean_B_prime

b.means_increased_verification

追问练习

追问 1

A fund-of-funds manager reclassifies a hedge fund strategy from the 'relative value' bucket to the 'macro' bucket. The fund's Sharpe ratio is 0.8, while the pre-move average Sharpe is 0.5 for macro and 1.2 for relative value. Show that this single reclassification raises the reported average Sharpe ratio of both buckets. Discuss how this creates misleading performance reporting.

提交作答后加载提示与解析。