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158概率中等数值题medium

Triple Birthday Collision Threshold

题目

In a room of nn people with birthdays uniform on {1,,365}\{1,\ldots,365\}, let AA be the event that at least three people share the same birthday.

(a) Using a Poisson approximation (model the occupancy of each day as an independent Poisson(n/365)\text{Poisson}(n/365) variable), derive an approximate formula for P(A)P(A).

(b) Find the smallest nn such that P(A)12P(A) \ge \frac{1}{2} under this approximation.

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