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1634统计中等derivationmedium

Inferring Cross-Day Heterogeneity from Paired Signal Outcomes

题目

Suppose each trading day has an unobserved hit probability PBeta(α,β)P \sim \mathrm{Beta}(\alpha,\beta). Conditional on PP, two independent intraday signals H1H_1 and H2H_2 are Bernoulli(P)(P).

From data, you estimate E[H1]=0.60,P(H1=1,H2=1)=0.42.E[H_1] = 0.60, \qquad P(H_1=1, H_2=1) = 0.42. Use the method of moments to estimate α\alpha and β\beta.

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