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2111数理金融中等数值题medium

Infer Stress Probability From a Variance Forecast 16

题目

A one-year variance forecast says annualized volatility will be 0.15 in a calm regime and 0.35 in a stress regime. If the fair variance-swap volatility strike is 0.24, what risk-neutral probability of the stress regime is implied by the variance forecast?

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