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217概率中等derivationmedium

Negative Binomial as a Poisson–Gamma Mixture

题目

Let ΛGamma(r,β)\Lambda \sim \text{Gamma}(r, \beta) with density fΛ(λ)=βrΓ(r)λr1eβλf_\Lambda(\lambda) = \frac{\beta^r}{\Gamma(r)} \lambda^{r-1} e^{-\beta \lambda} for λ>0\lambda > 0, and let XΛ=λPoisson(λ)X \mid \Lambda = \lambda \sim \text{Poisson}(\lambda).

(a) Write down P(X=kΛ=λ)P(X = k \mid \Lambda = \lambda) and compute the marginal PMF P(X=k)P(X = k) by integrating over Λ\Lambda.

(b) Show that P(X=k)=(k+r1k)pk(1p)rP(X = k) = \binom{k + r - 1}{k} p^k (1-p)^r where p=11+βp = \frac{1}{1+\beta}, and identify the distribution.

(c) Use the mixture representation to find E[X]E[X] and Var(X)\text{Var}(X) via the tower property (law of total expectation and law of total variance), without computing the PMF.

(d) Verify numerically: r=3r = 3, β=4\beta = 4. Compute P(X=2)P(X = 2) and E[X]E[X].

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c_mean

c_variance

d_P_X2

d_EX