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219概率困难derivationlong

Distribution of the Maximum of Independent Geometric Random Variables

题目

Let X1,X2,,XnX_1, X_2, \ldots, X_n be independent Geometric(p)\text{Geometric}(p) random variables with P(Xi=k)=(1p)k1pP(X_i = k) = (1-p)^{k-1} p for k=1,2,k = 1, 2, \ldots Define M=max(X1,,Xn)M = \max(X_1, \ldots, X_n).

(a) Show that P(Mm)=[1(1p)m]nP(M \le m) = [1 - (1-p)^m]^n for m=1,2,m = 1, 2, \ldots

(b) Derive P(M=m)P(M = m) from the CDF.

(c) Express E[M]E[M] as an infinite series using the tail-sum formula E[M]=m=0P(M>m)E[M] = \sum_{m=0}^{\infty} P(M > m). Simplify to: E[M]=m=0[1(1(1p)m)n].E[M] = \sum_{m=0}^{\infty} \left[1 - (1 - (1-p)^m)^n\right].

(d) For the special case n=2n = 2, p=1/2p = 1/2, compute P(M=1)P(M = 1), P(M=2)P(M = 2), P(M=3)P(M = 3) and verify they sum to nearly 1. Compute E[M]E[M] exactly by evaluating the series.

(e) For general nn and small pp, argue heuristically that E[M]lnnpE[M] \approx \frac{\ln n}{p} by comparing to the continuous exponential analogue.

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CDF_formula

EM_series_formula

EM_value_n2p1_2