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Zero-Truncated Poisson Distribution

题目

The zero-truncated Poisson distribution arises when a Poisson process is observed conditional on at least one event occurring. Let YPoisson(λ)Y \sim \text{Poisson}(\lambda) with λ>0\lambda > 0, and define X=(YY1)X = (Y \mid Y \ge 1).

(a) Derive the PMF of XX: show that P(X=k)=λkk!(eλ1)P(X = k) = \frac{\lambda^k}{k!(e^\lambda - 1)} for k=1,2,3,k = 1, 2, 3, \ldots, and verify it sums to 1.

(b) Compute E[X]E[X] by relating it to E[Y]E[Y] via the truncation. Specifically, show that E[X]=λ1eλ.E[X] = \frac{\lambda}{1 - e^{-\lambda}}.

(c) Derive Var(X)\text{Var}(X) using the identity Var(X)=E[X2](E[X])2\text{Var}(X) = E[X^2] - (E[X])^2. Show that Var(X)=λ(1+λ)1eλλ2(1eλ)2.\text{Var}(X) = \frac{\lambda(1 + \lambda)}{1 - e^{-\lambda}} - \frac{\lambda^2}{(1 - e^{-\lambda})^2}.

(d) Evaluate P(X=1)P(X = 1), E[X]E[X], and Var(X)\text{Var}(X) numerically for λ=0.5\lambda = 0.5.

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