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224概率困难derivationmedium

Compound Poisson Distribution: MGF and Moments

题目

Let NPoisson(λ)N \sim \text{Poisson}(\lambda) and let X1,X2,X_1, X_2, \ldots be iid discrete random variables (independent of NN) with PMF P(Xi=j)=pjP(X_i = j) = p_j for j=1,2,j = 1, 2, \ldots and MGF MX(t)=E[etX1]M_X(t) = E[e^{tX_1}]. Define the compound Poisson sum S=i=1NXiS = \sum_{i=1}^{N} X_i (with S=0S = 0 when N=0N = 0).

(a) Derive the MGF of SS. Show that MS(t)=exp ⁣(λ(MX(t)1))M_S(t) = \exp\!\big(\lambda(M_X(t) - 1)\big).

(b) Use the MGF to derive E[S]E[S] and Var(S)\text{Var}(S). Express your answers in terms of λ\lambda, E[X1]E[X_1], and Var(X1)\text{Var}(X_1).

(c) Alternatively, derive E[S]E[S] and Var(S)\text{Var}(S) using the tower property (law of total expectation) and the Eve's law (law of total variance), conditioning on NN.

(d) Application: An insurance company receives claims at a Poisson rate of λ=10\lambda = 10 per day. Each claim size is $1000\$1000 with probability 0.60.6 or $5000\$5000 with probability 0.40.4, independently. Find E[S]E[S] and Var(S)\text{Var}(S) for the total daily claims SS, and compute the standard deviation.

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MGF of S

E[S] (symbolic)

Var(S) (symbolic)

E[S] (application)

Var(S) (application)

SD(S) (application)