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2752脑筋急转弯中等derivationmedium

Winner's Curse After Seeing High Against One Low Signal

题目

An asset has common value V{0,100}V\in\{0,100\} with prior P(V=100)=1/2P(V=100)=1/2. Each bidder receives a signal that equals the true state with probability 0.80.8, independently across bidders conditional on VV. You observe a high signal and learn that your rival observed a low signal. What is E[Vyour signal high, rival low]E[V\mid \text{your signal high, rival low}]? If you bid 8080 in a first-price auction and win for sure in this information set, what is your expected profit?

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你的答案

Posterior expected value

Expected profit