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3161统计中等derivationmedium

Trade Only If Posterior Regime Probability Exceeds 70%

题目

A latent profitable regime has prior probability 12\frac{1}{2}. Independent signals arrive sequentially; each H doubles the odds of the regime and each T halves them. After the signal string HH, should you act if the required posterior threshold is 710\frac{7}{10}? Also report the posterior probability.

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posterior probability

decision