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3162统计中等derivationmedium

Allocate Capital Only Above a 60% Posterior

题目

A latent profitable regime has prior probability 25\frac{2}{5}. Independent signals arrive sequentially; each H doubles the odds of the regime and each T halves them. After the signal string HHT, should you act if the required posterior threshold is 35\frac{3}{5}? Also report the posterior probability.

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posterior probability

should act