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3165统计中等derivationmedium

Turn On the Hedge Above 65% Posterior

题目

A latent profitable regime has prior probability 14\frac{1}{4}. Independent signals arrive sequentially; each H doubles the odds of the regime and each T halves them. After the signal string HHHT, should you act if the required posterior threshold is 1320\frac{13}{20}? Also report the posterior probability.

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posterior_probability

should_you_act