3221统计中等essayshort
A Confidence Interval Cannot Price a One-Off Launch Decision
题目
A PM sees a frequentist 95% confidence interval for next-month strategy edge of [-0.1, 0.4] and asks, "So what is the probability the true edge is positive for this launch decision?" Why can't the interval answer that question by itself, and what Bayesian quantity would answer it?
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