3237统计简单essayshort
Why a Posterior Mean Can Move While the MLE Does Not
题目
A desk observes only 4 new defaults for a rare event. Using a strong historical Beta prior, the Bayesian posterior mean default rate is much lower than the sample proportion, while the frequentist MLE equals the sample proportion exactly. Explain why these two answers can legitimately differ and what each one is conditioning on.
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