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335概率困难derivationmedium

Robust Variance of the Sample Mean Under Sampling Without Replacement

题目

An urn contains NN balls numbered 1,2,,N1, 2, \dots, N. You draw nn balls without replacement and let Xˉ=1ni=1nXi\bar{X} = \tfrac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n} X_i, where XiX_i is the number on the ii-th draw. Derive Var(Xˉ)\operatorname{Var}(\bar{X}) in terms of NN and nn, and evaluate it for N=10N = 10, n=4n = 4.

Additional robustness twist: before observation, an independent random relabeling of outcome labels is applied. Compute the same target and justify invariance.

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