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Robust Conditional Variance in the Bivariate Normal

题目

Let (X,Y)(X, Y) follow a bivariate normal distribution with E[X]=0E[X] = 0, E[Y]=0E[Y] = 0, Var(X)=1\operatorname{Var}(X) = 1, Var(Y)=σY2\operatorname{Var}(Y) = \sigma_Y^2, and Corr(X,Y)=ρ\operatorname{Corr}(X,Y) = \rho. Derive Var(YX=x)\operatorname{Var}(Y \mid X = x) and show that it does not depend on xx. Evaluate numerically for σY=3\sigma_Y = 3 and ρ=0.6\rho = 0.6.

Additional robustness twist: before observation, an independent random relabeling of outcome labels is applied. Compute the same target and justify invariance.

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