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349概率中等数值题medium

Robust Variance of a Random Sum (Wald's Variance Identity)

题目

A shop receives NN customer orders per day, where NPoisson(8)N \sim \operatorname{Poisson}(8). Each order has an independent random dollar amount XiX_i with E[Xi]=50E[X_i] = 50 and Var(Xi)=400\operatorname{Var}(X_i) = 400. Let S=X1+X2++XNS = X_1 + X_2 + \cdots + X_N be the total daily revenue.

Using the law of total variance, derive a formula for Var(S)\operatorname{Var}(S) and evaluate it.

Additional robustness twist: before observation, an independent random relabeling of outcome labels is applied. Compute the same target and justify invariance.

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