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364概率困难derivationlong

Tower Property Verification in a Gaussian Markov Chain

题目

Let (X,Y,Z)(X, Y, Z) be mean-zero jointly normal with Var(X)=Var(Y)=Var(Z)=1\operatorname{Var}(X) = \operatorname{Var}(Y) = \operatorname{Var}(Z) = 1, Corr(X,Y)=1/2\operatorname{Corr}(X,Y) = 1/2, Corr(Y,Z)=1/3\operatorname{Corr}(Y,Z) = 1/3, and Corr(X,Z)=1/6\operatorname{Corr}(X,Z) = 1/6. (This makes XYZX - Y - Z a Gaussian Markov chain: X ⁣ ⁣ZYX \perp\!\!\perp Z \mid Y.)

(a) Compute E[XZ]E[X \mid Z] directly using the bivariate normal regression formula.

(b) Compute E[E[XY]Z]E[E[X \mid Y] \mid Z] by first finding E[XY]E[X \mid Y], then taking its conditional expectation given ZZ.

(c) Verify that both answers agree, illustrating the tower property E[XZ]=E[E[XY]Z]E[X \mid Z] = E[E[X \mid Y] \mid Z] when σ(Z)σ(Y)\sigma(Z) \subseteq \sigma(Y) is replaced by the Markov condition X ⁣ ⁣ZYX \perp\!\!\perp Z \mid Y.

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