Let (X,Y,Z) be mean-zero jointly normal with Var(X)=Var(Y)=Var(Z)=1, Corr(X,Y)=1/2, Corr(Y,Z)=1/3, and Corr(X,Z)=1/6. (This makes X−Y−Z a Gaussian Markov chain: X⊥⊥Z∣Y.)
(a) Compute E[X∣Z] directly using the bivariate normal regression formula.
(b) Compute E[E[X∣Y]∣Z] by first finding E[X∣Y], then taking its conditional expectation given Z.
(c) Verify that both answers agree, illustrating the tower property E[X∣Z]=E[E[X∣Y]∣Z] when σ(Z)⊆σ(Y) is replaced by the Markov condition X⊥⊥Z∣Y.