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430概率困难derivationlong

Characterization of Memorylessness and the Residual Life Paradox

题目

Part (a): Let XX be a continuous, positive random variable satisfying P(X>s+tX>s)=P(X>t)P(X > s + t \mid X > s) = P(X > t) for all s,t0s, t \geq 0. Prove that XX must be exponentially distributed.

Part (b): A lightbulb's lifetime LL has CDF F(t)=112et12e3tF(t) = 1 - \frac{1}{2}e^{-t} - \frac{1}{2}e^{-3t} for t0t \geq 0 (a mixture of Exp(1)\operatorname{Exp}(1) and Exp(3)\operatorname{Exp}(3)). You arrive at a uniformly random time and observe the bulb currently in use. Let RR be the residual lifetime of that bulb. Show that E[R]>E[L]E[R] > E[L] and compute both values. Explain why memorylessness breaks down and causes this paradox.

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你的答案

E[L]

E[R]