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462概率简单数值题short

Estimating Pi by Monte Carlo and the Law of Large Numbers

题目

To estimate π\pi, you draw n=10,000n = 10{,}000 points (Xi,Yi)(X_i, Y_i) independently and uniformly on the unit square [0,1]2[0,1]^2. Define Zi=1(Xi2+Yi21)Z_i = \mathbf{1}(X_i^2 + Y_i^2 \le 1), and let π^=4Zˉ\hat{\pi} = 4\bar{Z} where Zˉ=1ni=1nZi\bar{Z} = \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n Z_i.

(a) Explain why E[π^]=πE[\hat{\pi}] = \pi and why π^π\hat{\pi} \to \pi almost surely.

(b) Using the CLT, find an approximate 95%95\% confidence interval for π\pi given that the observed Zˉ=0.7854\bar{Z} = 0.7854.

You may use Φ(1.96)0.975\Phi(1.96) \approx 0.975 and π3.1416\pi \approx 3.1416.

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