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466概率简单数值题short

Election Poll Margin of Error via the CLT

题目

A pollster surveys n=1,600n = 1{,}600 voters to estimate the proportion pp supporting a candidate. Suppose the true proportion is p=0.5p = 0.5. Using the CLT, find the probability that the sample proportion p^\hat{p} falls within 0.020.02 of the true value, i.e., approximate P(p^0.5<0.02)P(|\hat{p} - 0.5| < 0.02).

You may use Φ(1.60)0.9452\Phi(1.60) \approx 0.9452.

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