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473概率中等数值题short

Probability of Negative Portfolio Return via CLT

题目

A portfolio consists of n=50n = 50 stocks with equal weight 1/n1/n. The annual returns R1,,R50R_1, \ldots, R_{50} are independent, each with mean μ=0.08\mu = 0.08 (i.e., 8%8\%) and standard deviation σ=0.20\sigma = 0.20.

The portfolio return is Rˉ=150i=150Ri\bar{R} = \frac{1}{50}\sum_{i=1}^{50} R_i.

(a) State what the LLN implies about Rˉ\bar{R} as nn \to \infty.

(b) Using the CLT, approximate P(Rˉ<0)P(\bar{R} < 0).

You may use Φ(2.83)0.9977\Phi(2.83) \approx 0.9977.

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你的答案

b