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491概率简单数值题short

Hitting Time with State-Dependent Self-Loops

题目

A Markov chain on {0,1,2,3}\{0, 1, 2, 3\} has transition probabilities: from state ii (0i20 \le i \le 2), the chain stays at ii with probability i4\frac{i}{4}, moves to i+1i+1 with probability 1i41 - \frac{i}{4}. State 33 is absorbing.

Compute E[T3X0=0]E[T_3 \mid X_0 = 0].

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