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499概率中等derivationmedium

First Passage with Periodically Varying Drift

题目

A Markov chain on {0,1,2,3,4,5,6}\{0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6\} has absorbing state 00 and reflecting state 66 (i.e., p(6,5)=1p(6, 5) = 1). For transient states 1i51 \le i \le 5, the transition probabilities depend on imod3i \bmod 3:

  • If i0(mod3)i \equiv 0 \pmod{3} (i.e., i=3i = 3): p(i,i1)=23p(i, i-1) = \tfrac{2}{3}, p(i,i+1)=13p(i, i+1) = \tfrac{1}{3}.
  • If i1(mod3)i \equiv 1 \pmod{3} (i.e., i{1,4}i \in \{1, 4\}): p(i,i1)=12p(i, i-1) = \tfrac{1}{2}, p(i,i+1)=12p(i, i+1) = \tfrac{1}{2}.
  • If i2(mod3)i \equiv 2 \pmod{3} (i.e., i{2,5}i \in \{2, 5\}): p(i,i1)=13p(i, i-1) = \tfrac{1}{3}, p(i,i+1)=23p(i, i+1) = \tfrac{2}{3}.

Compute E[T0X0=3]E[T_0 \mid X_0 = 3].

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