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500概率困难derivationlong

Harmonic Function Method for Splitting Probability and Hitting Time

题目

A Markov chain on {0,1,2,3,4,5}\{0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5\} has absorbing states 00 and 55. For interior states: p(1,0)=14,p(1,2)=34,p(1,0) = \tfrac{1}{4}, \quad p(1,2) = \tfrac{3}{4}, p(2,1)=13,p(2,3)=23,p(2,1) = \tfrac{1}{3}, \quad p(2,3) = \tfrac{2}{3}, p(3,2)=12,p(3,4)=12,p(3,2) = \tfrac{1}{2}, \quad p(3,4) = \tfrac{1}{2}, p(4,3)=23,p(4,5)=13.p(4,3) = \tfrac{2}{3}, \quad p(4,5) = \tfrac{1}{3}.

Let T=inf{n0:Xn{0,5}}T = \inf\{n \ge 0 : X_n \in \{0, 5\}\}.

(a) A function ff on {0,,5}\{0,\ldots,5\} is *harmonic* on {1,2,3,4}\{1,2,3,4\} if f(i)=jp(i,j)f(j)f(i) = \sum_j p(i,j) f(j) for i{1,2,3,4}i \in \{1,2,3,4\}. Find the harmonic function with f(0)=0f(0) = 0, f(5)=1f(5) = 1, and use it to compute P(XT=5X0=2)P(X_T = 5 \mid X_0 = 2).

(b) Compute E[TX0=2]E[T \mid X_0 = 2].

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你的答案

a

b