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5901概率困难数值题long

Expected Rounds to Double a Kelly Bankroll

题目

A gambler bets the Kelly fraction on an even-money coin with win probability p=0.6p=0.6 every round, so log-wealth is a random walk with positive drift. Let GG be the per-round expected log-growth (the maximal Kelly growth rate). Using an optional-stopping argument on a suitable martingale, estimate the expected number of rounds until wealth first doubles. You may ignore overshoot past the doubling level.

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