5902概率中等数值题medium
Kelly Sizing with an Unknown Win Probability
题目
A coin's win probability is unknown, with prior . You observe wins and losses in calibration trials, then must place one even-money bet on the next flip, choosing a fraction of wealth to maximize the expected log-wealth after that bet. What fraction should you bet, and why is the posterior mean (rather than, say, the posterior mode) the right quantity to plug into the Kelly formula?
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你的答案
fraction_to_bet