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5902概率中等数值题medium

Kelly Sizing with an Unknown Win Probability

题目

A coin's win probability θ\theta is unknown, with prior θBeta(2,2)\theta\sim\text{Beta}(2,2). You observe 77 wins and 33 losses in calibration trials, then must place one even-money bet on the next flip, choosing a fraction ff of wealth to maximize the expected log-wealth after that bet. What fraction should you bet, and why is the posterior mean (rather than, say, the posterior mode) the right quantity to plug into the Kelly formula?

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你的答案

fraction_to_bet