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590概率困难derivationlong

Weighted Offer Stop Rule 5

题目

You may inspect up to 3 independent offers. Each offer takes values 0 with probability 1/4, 4 with probability 1/4, 7 with probability 1/4, 12 with probability 1/4. Rejecting an offer and continuing costs 1 point(s), and if you reach the last draw you must accept it. What first-round acceptance threshold is optimal, and what is the resulting expected net payoff?

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Threshold

Payoff