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5916概率中等derivationmedium

Most You Would Pay for a Perfect Test

题目

A product launch pays +30+30 if the market is receptive and 12-12 if it is not; receptivity has prior probability 310\frac{3}{10}. You may instead shelve the product for 00. A consultant offers a perfectly accurate test that reveals the true market state before you decide. What is the most you should be willing to pay for this test?

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