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5919概率中等derivationmedium

One Free Draw Before Betting on the Majority Color

题目

An urn is type-R with probability 35\frac35 (then it is 80%80\% red balls) or type-B with probability 25\frac25 (then it is 80%80\% blue balls). You will bet on the urn's majority color: a correct bet pays 11, a wrong bet pays 00. You may first draw one ball (with replacement) and observe its color for free. By how much does observing this single draw raise your expected payoff over betting with no draw?

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