Before Trusting AUC
AUC improved a little after retraining. What should you ask first before declaring the new model practically better?
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中文题目AUC improved a little after retraining. What should you ask first before declaring the new model practically better?
打开 →Your validation metric is noisy day to day. Before treating the first local peak as the stopping point, what should you calibrate?
打开 →A return feature looks very important in a trained model. What should you check first before concluding it captures genuine alpha?
打开 →Why does pure lasso often behave erratically when several features are highly correlated and similarly predictive?
打开 →What should you inspect first before trusting an optimizer's exact signal weights?
打开 →Why should a modeler distrust a dependence setup that implies a very benign calm regime and an absurdly catastrophic stress regime?
打开 →Why is fitting today's curve perfectly not enough to trust an HJM model for exotic rate options?
打开 →Before trusting a local-vol calibration, what should you inspect first besides raw fit error?
打开 →Fold scores vary wildly because different time periods behave very differently. What is the first tuning response you should consider before trusting a single mean CV number?
打开 →Why is calibrating only today's discount curve not enough to trust a short-rate model for option risk?
打开 →Current mid is 100. A stale print was 100.4 when the mid at that time was 99.9. You only trust 0.5 of that old deviation now, and a fresh peer signal adds 0.06. What fair value do you get?
打开 →Current mid is 50.2. A stale print was 49.8 when the mid at that time was 50. You only trust 0.3 of that old deviation now, and a fresh peer signal adds -0.04. What fair value do you get?
打开 →Current mid is 149.8. A stale print was 150.5 when the mid at that time was 149.7. You only trust 0.25 of that old deviation now, and a fresh peer signal adds 0.08. What fair value do you get?
打开 →Why does a strategy with a credible economic mechanism deserve more trust than a statistically similar strategy with no coherent story?
打开 →At the daily risk meeting, the CRO notes that the standalone historical VaRs of three desks add up to 42 million, but the portfolio historical VaR comes out to only 31 million after a new basis book was added. What is the most likely explanation, and what is one concrete systems
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