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3236Can a p-Value Be Combined with Prior Conviction?A trader says, "I had a strong prior view, and the p-value came out 0.03, so now I can blend the two and call the trade 97% likely." Why is that not a coherent frequentist calculation?统计简单essay未尝试面试订阅3237Why a Posterior Mean Can Move While the MLE Does NotA desk observes only 4 new defaults for a rare event. Using a strong historical Beta prior, the Bayesian posterior mean default rate is much lower than the sample proportion, while the frequentist MLE equals the sample proportion exactly. Explain why these two answers can legitimately differ and what each one is conditioning on.统计简单essay未尝试面试订阅3238Empirical Bayes Sits Between the CampsWhy does empirical Bayes often feel like it sits between Bayesian and frequentist workflows?统计简单essay未尝试面试订阅3239Large p-Value Does Not Mean High Posterior Null ProbabilityWhy is it dangerous to read a large p-value as strong evidence that the null is true?统计简单essay未尝试面试订阅3240Prior Sensitivity Is a Feature, Not Always a BugWhy can prior sensitivity analysis be a feature rather than a bug in a high-stakes decision problem?统计简单essay未尝试面试订阅